Since it is already almost a fact (although in politics there are always surprises of surprises) former Vice President Biden is on his way to win the elections, it seems appropriate to offer some elements of Joe Biden's foreign policy. The reason for this analysis, which will not escape the reader, is the historical importance that we, Venezuelans, attach to this presidential election in the US and its impact on the international community.
We could eventually face a situation of change in the parameters of action of the next US government. It is clear that, if he wins the presidential election, President Trump would maintain all his foreign policy aspirations. Probably he would place greater emphasis on each of those ends (ideological/principled) and those objectives (short and medium-term aspirations) for maintaining and deepen his vision of the American hegemony. All the segments of the political spectrum of that country converge around the idea of maintaining the world power of the United States. On the contrary, given the credible possibility of having a President Biden in few weeks, we want to anticipate what may be the fundamental features of the foreign policy strategy and that of a Democratic party that increasingly moves to the opposite extreme of the secular Republican conservatism (which, incidentally, does not embody Mr. Trump, but that is another issue.)
Let us be clear, however, that we are not responsible for the loss of time incurred in reading this analysis, should Mr Trump win the presidential election.
We could consolidate the proposals made so far by candidate Biden as follows, based on some postulates that have been made public:
“(US) American democracy and its values: an example for the international community.
The issue of the very complex situation of democracy is among the priorities of any foreign policy. The “values of American democracy” has been a constant idea in historical US foreign policies.
But in the approach of an eventual Biden government, there would be a particular twist that we would like to highlight: The need to revitalize democracy in that country is a particular approach presented in the program for the future.
This indicates that most probably it is recognized that important disturbing elements are arising in the domestic political system, and therefore it seems implicit social development could be in progress and represent a threat to the internal order, such as riots, looting, etc. Without order, without essential stability, it is not possible to sustain global influence. Any foreign policy is not sustainable without a stable internal order that serves as a platform for that policy.
There is another particular addition, although not different from the traditional approach of previous governments: it recognizes the need, (due to the high costs and risks) of the individualistic approach of the current administration to distribute the burden of world hegemonic power with other actors of the international relations: Western powers or of similar mentality when they indicate that they should strengthen the coalition of democracies that are with the United States;
In this vision, alliances are fundamentally useful for the preservation of the condition of the world leader in terms of liberal democracy in the face of totalitarianism. The mobilization of a Biden government for these purposes would begin with a call for allies at the global level. Plans for the convening of a world conference on democracy are already in progress.
They have identified three essential aspects of their agenda so far:
-fight against corruption
-the defense against authoritarianism, including the security
-fight against corruption
-the defense against authoritarianism, including the security
of the elections.
-advance human rights at the national and international level
-advance human rights at the national and international level
Chained to these actions, internal alliances will be attempted, such as the approach regarding the role of private industry in the political arena. “Action to the private sector” will be called.
The case of confronting the commercial and technological power of China is particularly noted.
There is also talk of foreign policy for the middle class to win the competition for the future against China. (We will wait for clarification on this point because we had never known of a foreign policy destined specifically for any socio-economic class of a nation).
Addressing for a moment the case of China, (which probably is a recurrent issue, it seems to us that there is a general coincidence regarding China although it is assumed that they would
develop different strategies. This tends to reaffirm our belief that President Trump's policy of containment towards China has been gaining adherents domestically and abroad, e.g. Australia, Great Britain, Germany, and others in the European Union, Japan, etc.) So, it is clear that the Democratic Party is not very far from the general position of the current government vis- à-vis the role of China. But it would not be surprising if the new strategy is based in principle on
a less intense confrontation, especially in the commercial and technological areas.
-renew US leadership to mobilize global action in the face of global threats.
The candidate and his team maintain the conception that the world does not organize itself. (True, the natural tendency is for chaos.) Yet candidate Biden's team rests that necessary world order on US leadership.
The case of confronting the commercial and technological power of China is particularly noted.
There is also talk of foreign policy for the middle class to win the competition for the future against China. (We will wait for clarification on this point because we had never known of a foreign policy destined specifically for any socio-economic class of a nation).
Addressing for a moment the case of China, (which probably is a recurrent issue, it seems to us that there is a general coincidence regarding China although it is assumed that they would
develop different strategies. This tends to reaffirm our belief that President Trump's policy of containment towards China has been gaining adherents domestically and abroad, e.g. Australia, Great Britain, Germany, and others in the European Union, Japan, etc.) So, it is clear that the Democratic Party is not very far from the general position of the current government vis- à-vis the role of China. But it would not be surprising if the new strategy is based in principle on
a less intense confrontation, especially in the commercial and technological areas.
-renew US leadership to mobilize global action in the face of global threats.
The candidate and his team maintain the conception that the world does not organize itself. (True, the natural tendency is for chaos.) Yet candidate Biden's team rests that necessary world order on US leadership.
“The world does not organize itself. American leadership, backed by clear goals and sound strategies, is necessary to effectively address the defining global challenges of our time. To lead again, we must restore our credibility and influence. From day one of a Biden administration,
other countries will once again have reason to trust and respect the word of an American president. Working together, democracies can and must confront the rise of populists, nationalists, and demagogues; the growing strength of autocratic powers and their efforts to divide and manipulate democracies; and the threats unique to our time, including the renewed threat of nuclear war, mass migration, the disruptive impact of new technologies, and climate change.
In other words, it appears to be based on the view that the United States is no longer the historic leading actor in international relations. (our preference in the use of the term leadership does not necessarily coincide because it does not carry popularity. In terms of international politics, we understand leadership as the ability to influence the rest of their peers with their initiatives or policies, whether these proposals or actions are “nice or not” or any other unimaginable qualification attributed to them, or that they have been formally announced with the case protocol or on Twitter.
other countries will once again have reason to trust and respect the word of an American president. Working together, democracies can and must confront the rise of populists, nationalists, and demagogues; the growing strength of autocratic powers and their efforts to divide and manipulate democracies; and the threats unique to our time, including the renewed threat of nuclear war, mass migration, the disruptive impact of new technologies, and climate change.
In other words, it appears to be based on the view that the United States is no longer the historic leading actor in international relations. (our preference in the use of the term leadership does not necessarily coincide because it does not carry popularity. In terms of international politics, we understand leadership as the ability to influence the rest of their peers with their initiatives or policies, whether these proposals or actions are “nice or not” or any other unimaginable qualification attributed to them, or that they have been formally announced with the case protocol or on Twitter.
So, we wonder if “relaunching” leadership means that there is a conviction that there is an evident loss of its power of persuasion, a loss of its influence in the international community. We have no evidence that this is the case. Rather the complete opposite. But most likely, leadership means in this political party jargon that we are talking of a positive-friendly leadership, as the one developed at the time by President Obama.
Other specific aspects of a future Biden administration that have been announced would be the ratification of traditional positions, such as defending the vital interests of the United States, ending “forever wars”, and elevating diplomacy as the first tool for global interaction. Rebuild and streamline the Department of State (the Chancery for us) investing and empowered, augmented by the talent and wealth of the diversity of the USA. (I have just selected some to illustrate the point)
Specifically, a review of an Obama / Biden initiative for Central America is announced.
It is proposed that they will restore partnerships or alliances: maintain NATO's optimal capabilities, including new technological threats, corruption, in outer space and on the high seas, and strengthen cooperation with partners beyond North America and Europe, Asia, strengthening collective capacities and integrating friends in Latin America and Africa.
Other specific aspects of a future Biden administration that have been announced would be the ratification of traditional positions, such as defending the vital interests of the United States, ending “forever wars”, and elevating diplomacy as the first tool for global interaction. Rebuild and streamline the Department of State (the Chancery for us) investing and empowered, augmented by the talent and wealth of the diversity of the USA. (I have just selected some to illustrate the point)
Specifically, a review of an Obama / Biden initiative for Central America is announced.
It is proposed that they will restore partnerships or alliances: maintain NATO's optimal capabilities, including new technological threats, corruption, in outer space and on the high seas, and strengthen cooperation with partners beyond North America and Europe, Asia, strengthening collective capacities and integrating friends in Latin America and Africa.
It is announced that they will strengthen alliances with Japan, South Korea, Australia and other Asian democracies while maintaining sustained foolproof support for Israel's security. There are other specific aspects, such as arms control, which falls within the classical sphere of the US national interest; but of particular importance is the one that clearly states that the US will once again be part of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change from day one.
This is the general outline of an eventual government of President Biden in matters of foreign policy. We do not know exactly the policy to follow in what could be called emblematic cases of particular interest to the United States or at least to the current administration. These "cases" are supposed to have priority in the preliminary definitions of a candidate, especially because national opinion has expectations and these, in turn, are based on the coincidence between the domestic political world and the pressure groups of a country, consider that in some way these cases touch in one way or another the sensitivity of national security.
Consequently, it is part of the interest of that republic to achieve certain particular objectives, (especially among immigrants) even if this means a change that can be drastic in strategies, tactics and instruments. None of those targets is listed so far (at least to the information we have).
We already know that both parties have followed in unison the establishment and defense of an international liberal system based on the promotion of free trade and liberal democracy, which has allowed the US to efficiently maintain its world hegemonic pre-eminence. Presumably, the Biden administration will not leave behind these philosophical-political precepts. Now, beyond these guiding principles of a policy, it remains to be seen how the Biden administration will approach the issues-countries-cases.
The axis of this policy would be what in the United States they call the multilateral approach (different from the semantics to what in diplomacy elsewhere we call multilateralism which does not mean alliances with similar countries, but refers to the use of multilateral mechanisms organized for the maintenance of peace and the promotion of sustainable development. That is, the UN with its General Assembly, its Security Council and the Economic and Social Council, plus the infinity of organizations that comprise the post-war, including financial institutions.)
In essence, and most probably President Biden's administration would tend to seek the establishment of a world order based on alliances, but it is not a new formula. It has been regularly used in history.
Exceptionally, during the Trump era, the USA has minimized these compact alliances even though they have continued to operate in a formal fashion. This current policy has been what we could call a " lone wolf "approach to act in international relations.
In essence, and most probably President Biden's administration would tend to seek the establishment of a world order based on alliances, but it is not a new formula. It has been regularly used in history.
Exceptionally, during the Trump era, the USA has minimized these compact alliances even though they have continued to operate in a formal fashion. This current policy has been what we could call a " lone wolf "approach to act in international relations.
So, until now we only have some general aspects and we suppose that the strategies and dictates of these four years will be reversed to some extent (although not necessarily their postulates) but it allows us to have a rough idea of what the new foreign policy of the USA will be in a post-Trump era if it happens.
To end for now, with a phrase I read many years ago from Professor Henry Kissinger:
“The new administrations come to power convinced of the need for objectives and general concepts. Sooner rather than later they are subject to the pressures of the immediate and the particular. The reason for this is the pragmatic approach to a problem- solving by decision-makers.
©2020 Vicente E Vallenilla
